AlanCashman.com Daily Plays Thread

[AlanCashman]

Off of a 3-0-1 Tue.

Took Baltimore +116 this afternoon, in progress

Adding Bettors Chat back into post rotation. 3 MLB Plays for tonight

MLB
Diamondbacks at Marlins 6:40
Weaver vs Detwiler (Opener?)

Pick: MIA Over 3.5 SMALL

Lopez was original listed starter for Miami, which made me like the Marlins but going with the potential Opener role for Detwiler keeps me off of Miami, but I do think it is very reasonable that the Marlins can get to Weaver and this bad Arizona bullpen to score 4 runs

Weaver has allowed 5 HR in 25.2 IP this season
Weaver 5.25 ERA last 7 starts
Weaver 1-9, 6.58 ERA last season
Weaver has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts
ARI bullpen 11.37 ERA last 3 games
ARI bullpen 7.68 ERA last 7 games
Opponent have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of Weaver’s last 4 starts
Weaver 1.286 WHIP this season


MLB
Braves at Nationals 7:05
Fried vs Fedde

Pick: Nats Over 3.5 SMALL

Fried has struggled vs this National team. He has a 6.45 ERA over his last 5 starts vs WAS and the Nationals are batting .450 while Slugging .675 vs the Braves lefty.

ATL bullpen 28th in MLB in WHIP
WAS batting .305 vs LHP this season, #2 in MLB


MLB
Astros at Yankees 7:05
Garcia vs Montgomery

Pick: HOU +0.5 First 5 Innings

Montgomery has a 5.01 ERA in his last 3 starts vs HOU, he only went 1 inning and did not exit due to performance in one of those, so basically just 2 starts.

HOU slugging .704 vs Montgomery
Montgomery 4.91 ERA last 7 starts
Montgomery has allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 7 starts
Montgomery has a 7.20 ERA in the 1st inning and a 5.40 ERA in the 2nd inning this season



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MLB
Seattle at Texas 2:35 pm
Gonzales vs Foltynewicz

Pick: TEX Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN

Gonzales 6.29 ERA on the road
Gonzales 6.43 ERA last 5 starts vs TEX
Gonzales 5.91 ERA last 7 starts
Gonzales 1.603 WHIP in road starts
RHB batting .312 vs Gonzales
SEA has allowed 4 or more runs in 8 of last 10 games
TEX roster batting .347, SLG .617 vs Gonzales
TEX has scored 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games Gonzales has started against them

MLB
Chicago Cubs at Washington 1:05 pm
Alzolay vs Fedde

Pick: Cubs Over 3.5 (-130) LEAN

Fedde 6.68 ERA last 7 starts
Fedde 5.00 ERA at home
Fedde allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of last 6 starts
WAS bullpen 5.78 ERA last 10 games

 

[AlanCashman]

Late Add Here



MLB

Baltimore at NY Yankees 7:05
Lopez vs Heaney



PICK: BAL Over 3.5 (+125) LEAN






Orioles Team Total tonight is 3.5 vs Heaney and the Yankees

-Heaney 6.69 ERA last 7 games
-Opponents have scored 4 or more runs on 6 of last 7 starts by Heaney
-Heaney 5.27 ERA in night games
-NYY pen 5.29 ERA last 10 games

Taking Orioles Orioles Over 3.5 (+125)

 

[AlanCashman]

[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MLB[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]Pittsburgh at Milwaukee[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]Kranick vs Houser

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[COLOR=var(--primary-text)][/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]PICK: MIL -1.5 (-115) LEAN

[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)][/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MIL batting .458, SLG .583 vs Kranick[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]PIT bullpen 6.97 ERA last 10 games[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MIL bullpen 2.83 ERA last 10 games[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]PIT has lost Kranick’s last 3 starts -1.5[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MIL has won 7 of Houser’s last 8 starts -1.5[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MIL has won Houser’s last 3 starts vs PIT -1.5[/COLOR]
[COLOR=var(--primary-text)]MIL has won 9 of last 10 vs PIT -1.5


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[AlanCashman]

MLB
Seattle at NY Yankees 1:05 pm
Flexen vs Heaney

Pick: SEA Over 3.5 LEAN


Seattle bats are far from on fire but facing Heaney may be what they


need to wake up.SEA batting .333, SLG .656 vs Heaney

Heaney has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of his last 7 starts
Heaney has a 7.13 ERA in his last 7 starts
Heaney has allowed 4 runs in each of his 2 starts vs SEA this season
Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 8 starts by Heaney


MLB
Boston at Toronto 3:07 pm GAME 1 (7 innings)
Pivetta vs Ray

Pick: TOR Over 3.5 SMALL

Pivetta has struggled vs Toronto. The Jays just need 4 runs.

Pivetta 7.39 ERA last 5 starts vs TOR
Pivetta 5.39 ERA in day games
Pivetta has allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts vs TOR
TOR roster batting .348, SLG 607 vs Pivetta
Pivetta 6.82 career ERA vs TOR


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[AlanCashman]

MLB
Tampa at Baltimore 1:05 pm
Wacha vs Lopez

Pick: BAL Over 3.5 Small

Wacha 6.15 ERA in road games
Wacha 6.43 ERA last 4 starts vs BAL
BAL batting .367, SLG .796 vs Wacha

 

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Detroit at Baltimore 7:05
Mize vs Akin
Pick: DET -124 LEAN

Mize 3.58 Road ERA
Akin 6.41 ERA at Home

Mize 3.48 ERA last 7 starts
Akin 9.93 ERA last 7 starts

DET bullpen 1.23 ERA last 10 games
BAL bullpen 11.76 ERA last 10 games


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[AlanCashman]

Friday 8/13

Going with Marlins Over 3.5 tonight . -110 is a good number given some of trends below

MLB
Chicago Cubs at Miami 7:10 pm
Alzolay vs Luzardo

Pick: MIA Over 3.5 (-110)

Alzolay 5.06 Road ERA
Alzolay 5.29 ERA in night games
Alzolay has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts
Cubs bullpen 7.02 ERA last 10 games
Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games
MIA has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games


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